Abstract
Abstract. Physically-based distributed modelling under changing climatic conditions has been carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics). The parameters of the model have been adjusted through calibration against runoff hydrographs observed for the period 2000–2009. Validation of the model has been performed for the period of 1970–1989. Both sensitivity analysis and scenario approaches (based on the CMIP3 projections) have been applied to assess possible hydrological consequences of climate change in the basin. It has been shown that for greenhouse gases emissions A2 scenario, averaged for 11 climate models, annual runoff will not change significantly for the future 50 years. But due to increasing of winter precipitation by up to 15%, the volume of flow in the flood period could increase by up to 20%. Earlier beginning of the flood season is expected because of rising of the air temperature.
Highlights
Determination of present and future climate-driven river runoff changes is the question of the day for hydrometeorology
As the key area for our study, we chose the Northern Dvina River basin, which belongs to White Sea basin
More than 60% of the annual runoff passes during the spring flood period
Summary
Determination of present and future climate-driven river runoff changes is the question of the day for hydrometeorology. An artificial scenario approach was applied to estimate the sensitivity of the Northern Dvina River runoff to possible climate changes.
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