Abstract
The aim of this study was to assess the thermal requirements of the most important grapevine varieties in northwestern Spain to better understand the impact of climate change on their phenology. Different phenological models (GDD, GDD Triangular and UniFORC) were tested and validated to predict budburst and flowering dates of grapevines at the variety level using phenological observations collected from Treixadura, Godello, Loureira and Albariño between 2008 and 2019. The same modeling framework was assessed to obtain the most suitable model for this region. The parametrization of the models was carried out with the Phenological Modeling Platform (PMP) platform by means of an iterative optimization process. Phenological data for all four varieties were used to determine the best-fitted parameters for each variety and model type that best predicted budburst and flowering dates. A model calibration phase was conducted using each variety dataset independently, where the intermediate-fitted parameters for each model formulation were freely-adjusted. Afterwards, the parameter set combination of the model providing the highest performance for each variety was externally validated with the dataset of the other three varieties, which allowed us to establish one overall unique model for budburst and flowering for all varieties. Finally, the performance of this model was compared with the attained one while considering all varieties in one dataset (12 years × 4 varieties giving a total number of observations of 48). For both phenological stages, the results showed no considerable differences between the GDD and Triangular GDD models. The best parameters selected were those provided by the Treixadura GDD model for budburst (day of the year (t0) = 49 and base temperature (Tb) = 5) and those corresponding to the Godello model (t0 = 52 and Tb = 6) for flowering. The modeling approach employed allowed obtaining a global prediction model that can adequately predict budburst and flowering dates for all varieties.
Highlights
In the near future, changes in local and regional atmospheric patterns are expected due to climate variations which could significantly affect grapevine phenology, grape production and wine quality [1,2]
Phenology has been considered as a key to many studies on climate change, mainly due to the effects of temperature on the life cycles of plants, especially on the grapevine
When we analyzed the phenology of the four grapevine varieties representatives of the Ribeiro DO (Ribeiro Designation of Origin) over 12 years, an oscillation was observed in the variability of the timing, mainly a small delay in the budburst stage start date
Summary
Changes in local and regional atmospheric patterns are expected due to climate variations which could significantly affect grapevine phenology, grape production and wine quality [1,2]. Climate change is expected to influence the close relationship between grapevine development and climate, affecting the yield and quality of the final products of this crop [11]. Many studies at the regional and global level have evaluated how the increase in air temperature over the last century has influenced the main agricultural ecosystems [1,7,22] as well as the assessment of future trends and impacts [3,23]. As the trend of the CO2 concentration increases in the atmosphere is expected to continue, it is probable that the global average temperature will rise by 0.2 to 0.3 ◦C per decade [26]. At the end of the 21st century, the temperature rise could exceed 1.5 ◦C [25]
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