Perspectives for Mitigation of CO2 Emission due to Development of Electromobility in Several Countries

Karol Tucki,Olga Orynycz,Mateusz Mitoraj-Wojtanek

doi:10.3390/en13164127

Karol Tucki, Olga Orynycz + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/en13164127

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Abstract

The creep trend method is used for the analysis of the development of electric car production in three regions: The United States, the European Union and Japan. Based on vehicle registration and population growth data for each year the creep trend method using historical data for the years 2007–2017 is applied for forecasting development up to 2030. Moreover, the original method for calculating the primary energy factor (PEF) was applied to the analysis of power engineering systems in the regions investigated. The assessment of the effects of electromobility development on air quality has been performed, reduction values for pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions have been determined, which was the main objective of this manuscript. Mitigation of air pollutant emissions, i.e., carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) was estimated and compared to the eventual expected increase of emissions from power plants due to an increase of the demand for electricity. It can be concluded that electricity powered cars along with appropriate choices of energetic resources as well as electricity distribution management will play the important role to achieve the sustainable energy economy. Based on the emission reduction projections resulting from the projected increase in the number of electric cars, (corrected) emissions will be avoided in 2030 in the amount of over 14,908,000 thousand tonnes CO2 in European Union, 3,786,000 thousand tonnes CO2 in United States and 111,683 thousand tonnes CO2 in Japan.

Highlights

Continuous development of the economies of the European Union, North America and Asia has been clearly observed in recent years [1,2,3]
2020, 13, 4127 regions covered was calculated thanks to the analysis of change dynamics and the forecast made; that enabled determination of the values related to reduction of pollutant and greenhouse determination of the values related to reduction of pollutant and greenhouse effect emission, which is effect emission, which is the main objective of this study
It ought to be stressed that even though the aggregated number of electric cars anticipated for the coming years is the lowest in Japan, the country clearly outpaces the European Union if the value is recalculated into the number of residents

Summary

Introduction

Continuous development of the economies of the European Union, North America and Asia has been clearly observed in recent years [1,2,3]. Many countries recognise the significant role of road transport, including the increasing number of personal forms of transport, in the emissions of greenhouse gases and other harmful substances into the atmosphere, which directly translates into deteriorating quality of air in European cities [63,64]. Some of those countries have undertaken actions aimed at development of electromobility and other alternative fuels to enable reduction of the emissions [65,66]. The brand has remained the leader of the hybrid vehicle market [74,75,76]

Materials and Methods

Development of Motorization in the Analysed Regions

Motorization

Energy Sources Mix

Results