Perspectives de l'économie française

Abstract

The economic growth for 1986-1987 will widely depend on and firms reactions for the reverses oil crisis. If they are going to use income transfers to reduce their debt, the growth will remain Home — saving would substitute the external debt in order to finance same investment amount. Finally, this is the danger emphasized in forecast. The value — added sharing could be modified in favour of the because of the relatively restrictive wage — policy and of the lifted administrative controls on prices. Hence, the following paradox : whereas « mutandis » profits growth increases investment, a national income distribution too much favourable to the firms, can, by depressing the demand, not only be prejudicial to consumption, but by the influence of demand on investment, it can also be prejudicial to investment. There is an escape for this situation. On the one hand, tax — cuts be higher than those assumed in the control — forecast, on the other managers may not reap advantage from the lifted administrative controls prices to improve their profits. Both assumptions provide an scenario where inflation would be lower and the real household growth would be higher. The trade-balance improvement should be limited in 1986 because of deterioration of the industrial trade-balance. The trade-balance surplus would reach about 20 billions in 1986-1987. According to the last informations given by Government, fiscal policy next year, would lead to a public spending deliberated cutting down of billions Francs, and a public deficit reduction of 20 billions. The exemption of social insurance contribution for youth employment, probably improve employment but they will be balanced by the impact of the easing of redundancy procedures and employment reduction the public sector. Production should grow at the same rate than productivity, and employment will stop declining. Due to the labour increase, unemployment will keep on growing.