Persistence of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Flow Patterns

Abstract

Abstract North Pacific monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are more persistent than a first-order Markev process, often lasting for more than 5 months. Sea surface temperature persistence undergoes an annual cycle that is attributable to the depth of the surface mixed layer and to the annual cycle of focing. For a given lag, the pattern correlation is minimum when it involves SST during the summer months and maximum when it involves SST during the winter months. Average winter SST anomalies that have exhibited greatest persistence during the last four decades have been negative in the central North Pacific and positive along the West Coast but antipersistent SST anomalies have not confermed to a repeated pattern. The atmospheric 700 mb height anomalies associated with high persistence SST cases indicate that strong SST persistence is associated with long-lasting atmospheric anomaly patterns. For highly persistent January SST anamalies, 700 mb anomalies often last from December through February...