Observed Influence of North Pacific SST Anomalies on the Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract

Abstract A lagged maximum covariance analysis (MCA) of monthly anomaly data from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis shows significant relations between the large-scale atmospheric circulation in two seasons and prior North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, independent from the teleconnections associated with the ENSO phenomenon. Regression analysis based on the SST anomaly centers of action confirms these findings. In late summer, a hemispheric atmospheric signal that is primarily equivalent barotropic, except over the western subtropical Pacific, is significantly correlated with an SST anomaly mode up to at least 5 months earlier. Although the relation is most significant in the upper troposphere, significant temperature anomalies are found in the lower troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic, Europe, and Asia. The SST anomaly is largest in the Kuroshio Extension region and along the subtropical frontal zone, resembling the main mode of North Pacific SST anomaly variability in late winter and spring, and it is itself driven by the atmosphere. The predictability of the atmospheric signal, as estimated from cross-validated correlation, is highest when SST leads by 4 months because the SST anomaly pattern is more dominant in the spring than in the summer. In late fall and early winter, a signal resembling the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern is found to be correlated with a quadripolar SST anomaly during summer, up to 4 months earlier, with comparable statistical significance throughout the troposphere. The SST anomaly changes shape and propagates eastward, and by early winter it resembles the SST anomaly that is generated by the PNA pattern. It is argued that this results via heat flux forcing and meridional Ekman advection from an active coupling between the SST and the PNA pattern that takes place throughout the fall. Correspondingly, the predictability of the PNA-like signal is highest when SST leads by 2 months. In late summer, the maximum atmospheric perturbation at 250 mb reaches 35 m K−1 in the MCA and 20 m K−1 in the regressions. In early winter, the maximum atmospheric perturbation at 250 mb ranges between 70 m K−1 in the MCA and about 35 m K−1 in the regressions. This suggests that North Pacific SST anomalies have a substantial impact on the Northern Hemisphere climate. The back interaction of the atmospheric response onto the ocean is also discussed.