Abstract
Dry chilli, which stands third in production from the spice industry, has influenced the Indian diet to a greater extent . The impact of climate change conditions on chilli crop could, in turn, impart the economy deeply. Hence, the future projection of dry chilli production will surely enrich knowledge about crop performance. Climate data from CCSM4 being downscaled from RegCM 4.4 was used in yield projection till the end of 21st century through DSSAT crop simulation for two major cultivars of chilli in Tamilnadu viz., TNAU chilli hybrid CO1 and K1 variety under rainfed conditions. TNAU chilli hybrid CO1 and K1 varieties have shown negative yield deviations for all the agroclimatic zones of Tamilnadu under variable time scales. However, southern zone was exclusive in exhibting positive yield by 7 percent and 5 percent, respectively, during the end of century.
Highlights
Climate change is a process of immense importance since 20th century that could affect the partitioning to yield (Abhayapala et al, 2018)
The daily weather variables such as maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall and solar radiation were used for the historical runs, whereas for the future projections, three-time scales viz., near-century (NEAR: 2010-2040), mid-century (MID: 2041-2070) and end of the century (END: 2071-2099) derived from model output under RCP4.5 scenario were incorporated into Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop simulation model
Result outcomes of climate change impacts on rainfed TNAU chilli hybrid CO1 and K1 variety yields have been given in Table 2 and Table 3
Summary
Climate change is a process of immense importance since 20th century that could affect the partitioning to yield (Abhayapala et al, 2018). Researches have revealed that chilli crop had been influenced more by increase in minimum temperature than maximum temperature due to the changes in biomass with an area of 1,30,058 sq.km. Future climate projections on RCP4.5 were generated for a period of 94 years starting from 2006 to 2099 during which climate change impact assessment for chilli crop was studied.
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