Performance Comparison of Empirical Models for Estimating Global Solar Irradiation in the Soudano-Sahelian Zone of Cameroon: The Case of the City of Maroua and Garoua

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to compare thirty-five (35) solar radiation models available in the open literature in order to predict monthly solar radiation in two main cities of Cameroon. This estimation and comparison are based on selected statistical comparison parameters named, root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE), mean percentage error (MPE) and determination coefficient (R<sup>2</sup>). These different models are implemented using regression analysis tools named Exel and MATLAB. Estimated values were compared with measured values according to normalized values of statistical parameters, using measured meteorological data of more than 19 years, from 1984 to 2015. All the models have been classified with their associated ranking according to their statistical parameter accuracy. From this study it appears that the models of Ertekin and Yaldiz (MOD20), Togrul and Onat (MOD28), are more accurate than other models. Indeed, for the city of Maroua (MBE%=-2.82E-14; RMSE%=0.862; MPE=-0.00845; R<sup>2</sup>=0.985), while for Garoua (MBE%=-9.21E-15; RMSE%=0.806; MPE=-0.00631; R<sup>2</sup>=0.959). according to their accuracy these models can be therefore be used to predict monthly solar radiation for soudano-sahelian regions of Cameroon. Correlation equations found in this paper will help solar energy researcher to estimate data with trust because of its fine agreement with the observed one. hence the models presented in this study could be used to evaluate accurately the solar radiation at any locations with similar climate.