Parameterization of a simple model to estimate monthly global solar radiation based on meteorological variables, and evaluation of existing solar radiation models for Tabouk, Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Using 9 years of solar radiation data, we established a simple model to calculate the monthly mean global solar radiation on a horizontal surface in Tabouk (28.38° N, 36.6° E, Saudi Arabia). The model correlates the global solar radiation with five meteorological parameters. These parameters are the perceptible water vapor, air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, and the mean monthly daily fraction of possible sunshine hours. The estimated global radiation from the model was compared with the measured values using the mean bias error (MBE), coefficient of correlation ( R), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean percentage error (MPE). The t statistics were also applied as another indication of suitability. The model has a high coefficient of correlation ( R = 0.99), MBE = −14 × 10 −4 kW h/m 2, RMSE = 0.10 kW h/m 2, and MPE = −0.03%. It is believed that the model developed in this work is applicable for estimating, with great accuracy. The monthly mean daily global radiation at any site having similar conditions to those found in Tabouk. Furthermore, 29 regression models available in the literature were used to estimate the global solar radiation data for Tabouk. The selected models were different in terms of the variables they use and in the number of the variables they contained. The models were compared on the basis of the statistical errors considered above. Apart from Abdall’s model, which showed a reasonable estimate (MPE = −2.04%, MBE = −0.22 kW h/m 2, and RMSE = 0.59 kW h/m 2), all the models under or overestimate the measured solar radiation values. Comparisons between these models and the produced model, from this study, were also considered. According to the statistical results, the model of Abdall showed the prediction closest to those estimated using the developed model.