Abstract
This research examines the problem of procuring raw materials for production in a state-owned enterprise which operates in the oil palm plantation business and processing palm oil Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) into CPO (Crude Palm Oil) and Palm Kernel. The factory has a FFB processing capacity of 20 tons/hour, while the company experiences fluctuating supplies of raw materials so that it does not match the available factory capacity and causes loss of production time. With this problem, researchers are trying to find a more accurate forecast that is useful for meeting demand in order to increase the optimization of factory production capacity. The methods used in this research are single moving average and single exponential smoothing. These two methods will be compared by looking for the smallest error value in terms of MAD MSE and MAPE values.. The method with the smallest error value can be a proposed forecasting method for the future. The calculation results show that the single exponential smoothing method has a smaller error value.
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