Perceptions of housing stability and fertility intentions among public housing renters in Guangzhou, China

Abstract

In the context of declining fertility rates and worsening housing affordability for low-and moderate-income families, many scholars have paid closer attention to the effect of housing on the fertility preferences of vulnerable groups. However, existing studies on the association between housing and fertility are rooted in the private rental or buying housing market. The existing literature on the link between public rental housing sectors and fertility intentions has been surprisingly silent. Furthermore, despite the fact that previous studies have investigated how housing outcomes (housing conditions and housing tenure) reshape fertility intentions, to date, how fertility intentions are influenced by perceptions of housing situations is rarely examined, particularly perceptions of housing stability. More importantly, most previous literature estimating the effects of housing on fertility intentions has ignored the endogeneity issue between housing and fertility intentions, which may result in a biased estimate. Using 2022 public rental housing survey data in Guangzhou, we employ the instrumental variable approach to address the potential endogeneity issue of our equations and investigate whether perceptions of housing stability can encourage fertility intentions of public housing renters. The findings reveal that self-reported perceptions of housing stability are positively and significantly associated with the fertility intentions of public housing renters. Moreover, the housing stability effect is larger for the male and unmarried cohorts. These findings warrant policy consideration as to how public rental housing increases a sense of housing stability for tenants, thereby protecting and supporting their fundamental fertility rights.