Perceived partisan heterogeneity in communication networks and changes in party choice in a national election: evidence from Taiwan

Abstract

Partisan voters who change their voting choice on election day account for a small proportion of the electorate, but play a decisive role in a close election. Paul Beck’s (2002) social-support theory of partisan defection states that a voter who perceives support for a candidate of the opposite party from his or her communication network is likely to defect. This study examines Beck’s theory in the context of data collected in Taiwan after the 2004 presidential election. This election was marked by competition between two camps, making it the first campaign in Taiwan’s history that resembled a two-party system. Besides providing an empirical test of the theory, this article shows that Pan-Green Camp supporters are more volatile than Pan-Blue Camp supporters, and it identifies the major factors associated with this pattern.