Perceived Impact of an Earthquake Prediction: The Third Person Effect

Abstract

This paper explores perceived effects of the mass media called the “third-person” effect. This position argues that while the mass media do not have strong and important effects on “you “ or “me,” they do have important, and probably direct, effects on “them, “ most other people. The prediction of a Richter 6. + earthquake for the New Madrid Fault on or about December 3, 1990, provided an opportunity to study public opinion, information sources, and perceptions of media effects about a natural disaster. Belief in the earthquake prediction, perceived importance of and thinking about the problem were negatively related to the third-person effect. Attribution of media effects on others was also negatively related to use of newspapers and radio but television was an important source; those who attributed third-person effects also thought there was too much news about the prediction, and “most others “ were thought to believe the prediction.