Perceived feasibility and potential barriers of a net-zero system transition among Japanese experts

Abstract

Many governments and non-state actors have pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, raising questions about the feasibility of these decarbonization goals. The existing literature, however, mostly relied on technoeconomic assessments and lack broad contextual considerations such as national conditions and local sociocultural characteristics. Here, we present a framework for assessing perceived feasibility and multi-dimensional barriers for net-zero transition that can complement existing methods of technoeconomic traditions. We applied this framework to the Japanese net-zero goal by surveying more than 100 experts from diverse fields with a shared national context. Most of the experts supported the desirability of the net-zero goal and chose a probability of 33–66% for its feasibility. However, the distribution of feasibility assessments differs between groups of integrated assessment modelers and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change authors and other researchers, suggesting opportunities for further exploration within and between communities. Identified barriers reflect a unique national condition of Japan and include the limitations of national strategies and clean energy supply. The present framework can be extended to non-experts, data-scarce geographies and sectors.