Thailand’s net-zero emissions by 2050: analysis of economy-wide impacts

Abstract

This paper aims at exploring the economy-wide impacts of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 in Thailand. This study developed a recursive dynamic Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model of Thailand for the assessment. The macroeconomic impacts of Thailand’s net-zero GHG emission targets by 2050 are analyzed relative to its 2-degree pathway. Results indicate that Thailand should put more effort in GHG mitigation actions to achieve the emissions peak by 2025 and net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Improvement in energy efficiency; increasing electrification; expanding renewable energy utilization; deploying green hydrogen; bioenergy; carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS); and behavioral changes are the key identified pillars of decarbonization to drive Thailand towards the pathways of net-zero emissions by 2050. Results show that there is a possibility of attaining net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 at the expense of an economic loss for Thailand. The gross domestic product (GDP) loss would be as high as 8.5% in 2050 to attain net-zero emissions. Lower productivity from the energy intensive industries such as petroleum refineries, coal and lignite mining, manufacturing industries, and transport are the key contributing sectors to the GDP losses. The price of carbon mitigation would shoot up to reach USD 734 per tCO2eq in 2050 from USD 14 per tCO2eq in 2025 to attain net-zero emissions in 2050.