PERCEIVE project - Deliverable D6.3 "Report with analysis of model behaviour and scenario analysis"

Abstract

The scope of the Deliverable 6.3 is to provide a concrete analysis of the behaviour of the System Dynamics (SD) model on the European Cohesion Policy (CP) system, as a part of the Working Package 6 in the context of the PERCEIVE project. The model was already presented in the Deliverables 6.1 (qualitative model) and 6.2 (quantitative model). Focusing on the two subsystems under study, namely the funds’ absorption and general public awareness, the behavioural analysis includes both: (i) quantitative sensitivity analyses of the model’s parameters on the simulation results, (ii) and qualitative insights based on real data, the model’s structure and the outcomes of the quantitative analysis. More specifically, we articulated this study in two parts according to the model’s subsystems. In the funds’ absorption subsystem, as a reminder of the problem under study, we first report a concise analysis of EU and regional evidence on absorption rates. Then, the absorption model is presented in brief, followed by an extensive sensitivity analyses of the model’s parameters. The analysis provides the major simulation findings, along with indicative policy recommendations. Finally, a comprehensive discussion of the modelling approach, based on real data and the modelling results, is presented. In the general awareness subsystem, initially the available awareness data of the related Eurobarometer’s reports are presented for the contextualization of the problem. Thereafter, the awareness model is briefly discussed, while the main sensitivity analyses results are presented along with the related recommendations. Lastly, the model’s building process and the quantitative outcomes are discussed. Overall, this final Deliverable 6.3 contributes towards: (i) identifying the major factors of the CP system that affect the local managing authorities’ (LMAs’) performance in terms of funds’ absorption, as well as the citizens’ awareness about the EU role on regional development, (ii) in order to offer meaningful managerial insights for fostering the LMA administrative capacity and increasing the general public awareness about regional CP funding benefits. The analysis of the influencing factors, along with the adoption of efficient policies, is anticipated to improve the state of the CP system and support the regional sustainability of the local communities.