Abstract
The aim of this paper is to forecast the numbers of Australian tourist to Bali using multivariate fuzzy time series method (MFTS). MFTS method is development from fuzzy time series (FTS). The defferent betwen FTS and MFTS method is showed by factor in used. In FTS method using one factor, but in MFTS method using more than one factor. In this peper there was three factor used in this research, it was number of Australian tourist, Indonesian Inflation, and change rate of AUD to IDR. At the beginning, the speed of each factor was calculated. For each factor given weight, 0,999 for numbers of Australian tourist, -0,90 for Indonesian inflation, and 0,21 for change rate of AUD to IDR. The result showed that Australian tourist at July 2014 would visit Bali as much 91.056 tourist, with average error rate 6.87%.
Highlights
Bali merupakan salah satu destinasi wisata yang banyak diminati oleh wisatawan asing maupun domestik
The aim of this paper is to forecast the numbers of Australian tourist to Bali using multivariate fuzzy time series method
multivariat fuzzy time series (MFTS) method is showed by factor in used
Summary
Bali merupakan salah satu destinasi wisata yang banyak diminati oleh wisatawan asing maupun domestik. Salah satu metode yang dapat digunakan adalah multivariat fuzzy time series (MFTS). Tingkat Suku Bunga Sertifikat Bank Indonesia Berdasarkan Data Fuzzy Time Series Multivariat (Abadi [3]), penelitian ini menggunakan satu faktor utama yaitu tingkat suku bunga SBI dan enam faktor pendukung yaitu tingkat suku bunga deposito, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar Amerika, jumlah deposito, tingkat inflasi dan jumlah uang beredar. Penelitian yang penulis teliti berbeda dengan penelitian yang telah dilakukan sebelumnya, pada penelitian ini penulis mengitung hasil peramalan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan Australia ke Bali menggunakan FTS dan MFTS. Untuk metode FTS hanya digunakan satu faktor yaitu jumlah kunjungan wisatawan Australia ke Bali, sedeangkan perhitungan MFTS menggunakan satu faktor utama yaitu jumlah kunjungan wisatawan Australia ke Bali dan faktor pendukung yaitu kurs Australia terhadap Indonesia dan Inflasi Indonesia. Tujuan adalah mengetahui komparasi kinerja FTS dengan MFTS dalam memodelkan jumlah wisatawan Australia yang berkunjung ke Bali dan mengetahui prediksi jumlah wisatawan Australia yang berkunjung ke Bali pada satu bulan berikutnya
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