Abstract
This research aimed to know how the effect of Rupiah Exchange Rate, inflation rate, and international Exchange Index towards Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI). The independent variables of this study are Rupiah Exchange Rate (X1), Inflation rate (X2), Dow Jones index (X3), Nikkei 225 index (X4), and Hang Seng index (X5). The Sample was based on monthly time series data from January 2014 to December 2018, with documentation data collection technique from Bank Indonesia and Yahoofinance.com publication. Analytical techniques used were linier regression, classical Assumtions, determination coeffisient test (R2), for hypothesis test used F-test and t-test with significance level of 5%. The results of this indicate that the value of cooficient of determination (R2) 0,901 which means independent variables affect the dependent variable 89,2% and the rest is 10,8% influenced by other variables outside this study. The result of t-test shows that the Rupiah Exchange Rate and Nikkei 225 index have not significant and negative effect on Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI), Inflation rate have significant and negative effect on Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI), Dow Jones index and Hang Seng Index have significant and positive effect on Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI). Keywords: composite stock price index (cspi), rupiah exchange rate, inflation rate, dow jones index, nikkei 225 index, and hang seng index
Highlights
PENDAHULUAN Pasar modal di Indonesia saat ini berkembang cukup pesat dibuktikan dengan meningkatnya jumlah investor dari tahun ke tahun (Data Statistik Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI))
The Sample was based on monthly time series data from January 2014 to December 2018, with documentation data collection technique from Bank Indonesia and Yahoofinance.com publication
The result of t-test shows that the Rupiah Exchange Rate and Nikkei 225 index have not significant and negative effect on Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI), Inflation rate have significant and negative effect on Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI), Dow Jones index and Hang Seng Index have significant and positive effect on Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI)
Summary
Populasi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu seluruh data time series bulanan meliputi nilai tukar Rupiah, tingkat inflasi, indeks Dow Jones, indeks Nikkei 225, dan indeks Hang Seng periode Januari 2014 – Desember 2018 yaitu sebanyak 60 untuk masing-masing variabel. Teknik penentuan sampel dalam penelitian ini, menggunakan metode sampel jenuh. Jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder dalam bentuk time series bulanan selama lima tahun. Sumber data berasal dari data Bank Indonesia (http://www.bi.go.id/) meliputi data nilai tukar Rupiah dan Inflasi, data publikasi (http://finance.yahoo.com/) meliputi data IHSG dan Indeks Bursa Internasional. HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN Berdasarkan hasil uji asumsi klasik statistik didapatkan hasil bahwa data berdistribusi normal berarti model regresi memenuhi asumsi normalitas. Model regresi yang digunakan yaitu multikolinearitas, heterokedastisitas, dan autokorelasi. Hasil penelitian menghasilkan model regresi dalam penelitian ini terbebas dari gejala multikolinearitas, heterokedastisitas, dan autokorelasi.
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