Abstract
Abstract This paper examines possible future penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) toward decarbonization of energy system in Japan by utilizing a bottom-up energy technology mix model which incorporates a high-temporal-resolution power sector. The model is formulated as a large-scale linear programming model, which has capability of considering intermittent output of variable renewables, hourly-adjustment of electricity demand and supply using advanced technologies including large-scale batteries, EVs’ charging and energy conversion to hydrogen or heat. Simulation results reveal that EVs are highly likely to be deployed in the freight transport sector because the EVs’ annual utilization rate is generally higher than that in the passenger sector and it is relatively easy to recover higher investment cost through fuel savings. It is also found out that severe carbon reduction constraint does not necessarily bring about massive penetration of EVs because lowering carbon intensity in the power sector would play a primary role for decarbonization of whole energy system. However, little availability of decarbonized imported hydrogen and EVs’ cost reduction would lead to the brisk dissemination of the vehicles.
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