Abstract
Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) is a combination of linear regression models with spatial lag in response variables that consider spatial effects. One problem that considers spatial effects is leprosy cases. This study aims to predict the number of leprosy cases models in East Java Province and the factors that influence it. The type of data used in this study is secondary data obtained from the publication of the Health Profile of East Java Province in 2017 and the publication of the Central Statistics Agency (CSA) of East Java Province. The results of this study indicate that the SAR model can describe the number of leprosy cases in East Java Province with AIC value is 109,951 and value is 71,93%. The factors that influence the number of leprosy cases are the percentage of healthy houses and the number of health centers in each district/city in East Java Province.
Highlights
Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) is a combination of linear regression models with spatial lag in response variables that consider spatial effects
This study aims to predict the number of leprosy cases models in East Java Province and the factors that influence it
The results of this study indicate that the SAR model can describe the number of leprosy cases in East Java Province with AIC value is 109,951 and value is 71,93%
Summary
Analisis regresi adalah salah satu teknik analisis data yang digunakan untuk melihat hubungan antara variabel respons dengan variabel bebas. Regresi spasial merupakan pengembangan dari analisis regresi yang bertujuan untuk melihat hubungan antara variabel bebas dan variabel respons dengan adanya tambahan berupa informasi spasial (ruang/lokasi) pada data variabel respons, sehingga dalam menganalisis data tersebut harus mempertimbangkan efek spasial. Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) merupakan model yang menggabungkan antara model regresi linear dan lag spasial pada variabel respons dengan menggunakan data cross section (Anselin, 1988). Sehingga dalam menganalisis kasus tersebut digunakan analisis regresi spasial, salah satunya yaitu metode Spatial Autoregressive (SAR). Penelitian sebelumnya tentang penyakit kusta dilakukan oleh Ernawati, dkk (2016) yang meneliti angka prevalensi penyakit kusta di Jawa Timur menggunakan Spatial Durbin Model.
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