PECULIARITIES OF MODELING IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION WITH RISK ACCOUNTING

Abstract

The causes of the risk inherent in any field of human activity, in particular for agricultural production are considered. AIC, in contrast to other branches of production, has a very important specific reason for the appearance of risk - weather conditions. Weather conditions are one of the main factors of the degree of uncertainty for agricultural production. When developing the organization of production of the agricultural sector, the natural and climatic conditions must be taken into account. In the agroindustrial complex, weather risk is most important and the main task of modeling and optimizing agricultural production is the development of ways of taking into account and reducing the weather risk. Economic result, which is an indicator effectiveness production in agriculture economy, depends independent characteristics of weather conditions. The problem of weather economic sustainability and risk far exceeds the problem of productive stability, because not only all agricultural industries, but also the national economy of the country as a whole are closely related to agricultural production. The instability of agricultural production significantly affects all the integral indicators of the national economy, including the volume of the national product. In the agroindustrial complex, weather risk is most important and the main task of modeling and optimizing agricultural production is the development of ways of taking into account and reducing the weather risk. Economic result, which is an indicator effectiveness production in agriculture economy, depends independent characteristics of weather conditions, that is why it is a random variable. This applies to all regions, all forms of ownership, all types of agricultural activities. Weather conditions can not be managed, but they can be adapted to achieve maximum integral result. To do this, you must select the other projects, strategic and tactical solutions with multiple permissible ones. In principle, there is the ability to manage the characteristics of weather resistance economic efficiency. In this case, we must try to obtain the maximum economic effect not only in a separate weather situation, but also during the long term, so that the effectiveness of the production is as possible as possible in relation to the accidental weather conditions in the given climate zone.