Peatland resilience and presence under national climate gradients: Implications for peatland restoration strategies.

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Irish peatlands, while generally resilient, are significantly threatened by anthropogenic activities and climate change. Here we implement a mechanistic model to evaluate the impact of climate gradients on Irish Peatland Resilience at a national scale. We identify critical tipping points that signify shifts from peatland to forest ecosystems; assess how these shifts vary with climate change, and how they impact ecosystem carbon stores. In this approach we delineated the three main peatland types prevalent in Ireland: Low lying Atlantic blanket bogs, mountain blanket bogs, and raised bogs. Furthermore, the model outputs were used to derive a resilience index for each peatland type, providing an indication of their capacity to withstand environmental changes. Our results show that 21% of Ireland's area currently has a climate that can sustain existing rainwater-fed blanket bogs. Topography, including elevation and slope, also influences the distribution and vulnerability of peatland types, with raised bogs more susceptible to transitions in flatter areas. Additionally, Ireland's current climate potentially supports the formation of raised bogs over 63% of the land area. However, 16% of Irish landscapes are classified as sensitive for peatlands, where tree growth is likely to outcompete peatlands, making the natural formation of raised bogs from forests unlikely without extensive ecosystem management. These sensitive areas, already affected by ongoing environmental changes, may benefit from targeted conservation and restoration efforts to support their ecological and carbon storage functions. The insights from this research offer valuable guidance to help target national peatland restoration strategies. Ultimately, this study contributes to the broader goal of sustainable peatland management and preservation amidst changing environmental conditions.