Abstract
China has submitted its nationally determined contribution to peak its energy-related emissions around 2030. To understand how China might develop its economy while controlling CO2 emissions, this study surveys a number of recent modeling scenarios that project the country’s economic growth, energy mix, and associated emissions until 2050. Our analysis suggests that China’s CO2 emissions will continue to grow until 2040 or 2050 and will approximately double their 2010 level without additional policy intervention. The alternative scenario, however, suggests that peaking CO2 emissions around 2030 requires the emission growth rate to be reduced by 2% below the reference level. This step would result in a plateau in China’s emissions from 2020 to 2030. This paper also proposed a deep de-carbonization pathway for China that is consistent with China’s goal of peaking emissions by around 2030, which can best be achieved through a combination of improvements in energy and carbon intensities. Our analysis also indicated that the potential for energy intensity decline will be limited over time. Thus, the peaking will be largely dependent on the share of non-fossil fuel energy in primary energy consumption.
Highlights
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5)states that, if the increase in global mean surface temperature is to have a likely chance of being limited to two degrees Celsius by 2100, the global “budget” left for carbon emissions is less than 1778 GtCO2 [1]
China’s development needs are to advance people’s living standards and eliminate poverty. These needs drive China’s economic growth, and the huge production and service demands that push up China’s energy consumption and CO2 emissions. It follows that holding the increase in service demands to a manageable level and transforming industrial production to more sustainable patterns are prerequisites for China’s low-carbon development
We reviewed recent modeling exercises in order to analyze the impacts of China’s climate actions on emissions
Summary
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). China’s rapidly growing energy consumption and its coal-dominated energy mix create additional and serious environmental problems, including local air pollution and depletion of water resources, as well as the possibility of energy insecurity In this context, China has made great strides in controlling fossil-fuel carbon emissions and has increasingly taken on a leadership role in combating global climate change and moving to a cleaner and more efficient low-carbon economy. Energies 2017, 10, 209 biomass, and geothermal) targets into China’s top economic and social development plan, marking the institutionalization of domestically enforceable climate-change policies. They project that China’s emissions will continue to increase and, by the target year of 2030, will have grown by anywhere between 21% and more than 100%.
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