Peace and Conflict in the Southern Philippines: Why the 1996 Peace Agreement Is Fragile

Abstract

eace in the Southern Philippines is fragile. The 1996 agreement between the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the government of the Republic of the Philippines that ended more than two decades of hostilities has come under increasing criticism. The cornerstone of the current peace agreement is the creation of an autonomous region in Mindanao, which must be confirmed in a plebiscite in 1999. But there are signs that the population may reject the proposal. The peace agreement raised high hopes. The MNLF first picked up arms in response to the imposition of martial law by the Marcos regime in 1972 after which more than 100,000 people were killed over nearly three decades of violent conflict. The agreement spurred optimism that Mindanao could return to stability and turn its attention to developing the most impoverished regions of the Philippines. By the end of 1998, however, the peace process had been severely weakened. There are several reasons why it might be failing. First, the transitional structures of autonomy have failed to provide a good test for future autonomous institutions because of mismanagement and corruption. Nur Misuari and the MNLF leadership failed to show that their control of autonomous institutions could benefit all Muslims and non-Muslims in a new autonomous region. Second, and partly as a result of the first reason, these structures received little support from groups other than the MNLF because of the mainly Tausug base of the MNLF and the failure to involve non-Muslims of Mindanao in the peace negotiations. As a result, the current autonomy proposal is not perceived to be an adequate solution for all groups, including non-Tausug Muslims supporting the rival Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). Third, the agreement did not address the issue of land rights, which is crucial to any long-term peace in Mindanao. Fourth, the peace accord has not produced many of its expected benefits. Most significantly, it has not yet led to an improvement in the living standards of Muslims. While MNLF leaders can be blamed in part, a lack of strong commitment and resources from the Philippine government is also responsible. The latter