Abstract
To calculate an index of instability of the demand of technologies in relevant markets of contraceptives. A review was conducted in the drug pricing information system in Colombia, where the time horizon was from 2012 to 2017. The relevant markets of interest are selected (set of medicines that are competitors among themselves and between which there is therapeutic and economic substitutability) for their impact on the “pocket economy” and that are subject to regulation according to direct price control in Colombia, being Dienogest/estrogen and Levonorgestrel/ethinylestradiol the study markets; the measurement of market instability is carried out using two techniques, the first involved an arithmetic mean calculation which is called the coefficient of variation index and the second a linear regression involving algorithmic transformation of the dependent variable naming Masell index to the estimated value. The relevant market of Dienogest/estrogen presents a variation of the coefficient of 30.4 to 161.9 and a coefficient of masell that oscillates between 0.05 to 0.26, for the case of Levonorgestrel/ethinylestradiol the coefficient of variation oscillates between 35.6 and 138, while the Masell index oscillates between 03.052 to 0.334. There is a high instability in the demand of technologies of the two relevant markets of interest, as variations below 30 of the coefficient of variation are considered stable.The relevant Levonorgestrel/ethinylestradiol market with respect to the Dienogest/estrogen is considered less unstable due to the comparison of the estimated values; this instability in the demand for technologies in the contraceptive markets over time is related to the gap in the sales quotas of the units that make up the relevant markets. Considering the above, the price regulation commission could not only know if the market is concentrated but also the stability of the quotas in the market having as an input the instability index.
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