Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change.

Abstract

Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.