Pathways to seismic hazard evaluation: Extreme and characteristic earthquakes in areas of low and high seismicity

Abstract

The general philosophy of seismic hazard evaluation described here is appropriate for selection of seismic input to regional earthquake engineering codes prior to detailed on-site inspections and geotechnical assessments. Some probabilistic seismic hazard methodologies which can be applied in areas of low and high seismicity, are briefly described to emphasise the main equations with specimen results. Three aspects of hazard assessment are explored by different ‘pathways’. These include the analysis of regional earthquake catalogues to obtain magnitude recurrence, particularly using Gumbel extreme value statistics. This is extended to assess ground shaking hazard which is usually sought by earthquake engineers. Thirdly, the concept of earthquake perceptibility is developed, leading to the identification of an earthquake magnitude or type which is characteristic of a region. This ‘most perceptible’ earthquake is most likely to be felt at any site in a region and provides an earthquake selection criterion which can be used in aseismic design of noncritical structures. Because there are several methods of seismic hazard evaluation, the view is expressed that it is sensible for practical purposes to seek results from different methods or different pathways to the hazard evaluation.