Pathways of National Reunification in Germany, Yemen and Korea

Abstract

Korean reunification could be achieved by a confederation agreement between the South Korean government and the North Korean regime that preserves the existing North Korean elite or by a unilateral absorption of the North in which the North's population and territory would be directly incorporated into the South Korean political system. Which of these is a more plausible path to Korean unity? Two regimes confederate when one regime offers a bargain and the other accepts it; the confederation agreement itself then shapes future bargaining between the regimes. Absorption, in contrast, ends one of the regimes and so precludes future negotiations. The confederation path to reunification is more likely when the regimes can confederate in a way that preserves the balance of bargaining leverage between them, which will be when the weaker regime can claim unique competence at governing its territory and when both regimes can maintain their security via a combination of internal resources and external ties. When these factors are not present, absorption is the more likely path to reunification. We illustrate the theory by the reunification of Yemen via a confederation and the reunification of Germany via absorption and apply its logic to the unresolved case of Korea. We conclude that a confederation agreement between North and South Korea is unlikely in the foreseeable future.