Past eruptions and future predictions: Analyzing ancient responses to Mount Vesuvius for use in modern risk management

Abstract

The Campania region of southern Italy, dominated by Mount Vesuvius, is an enduring volcanic landscape which hosts a wealth of detailed information about human responses to past eruptions. This research taps into rich archaeological, geological, and historical data to bring together the past, present and future of Mount Vesuvius and the populations surrounding it. Records from the Avellino eruption (ca. 1900 BCE), and the Pompeii eruption (79 CE), their impacts, and associated social responses are examined here as two of the largest, most violent events of Vesuvius' eruptive history which impacted human populations. The social impacts of these eruptions are considered as valuable sources of information about worst-case-scenario events which should be utilized in contemporary risk management and emergency planning. The vulnerability and resilience of the Early Bronze Age and Roman societies who experienced the Avellino and Pompeii eruptions, respectively, are contrasted with potential responses of present Campanian communities to a hypothetical future eruption scenario. This work thus makes use of archaeological data from past disasters to engage with contemporary issues of emergency planning and risk management in the Vesuvius region of Southern Italy.