Past and present outbreaks of the balsam fir sawfly in western Newfoundland: An analytical review

Abstract

Historical data of defoliation and population density were examined to determine whether a sustained outbreak of balsam fir sawfly ( Neodiprion abietis Harris) in western Newfoundland, Canada is unprecedented in severity and duration. Results indicate that the current outbreak departs substantially from historical trends, covering a surface area twice the sum of all infestations occurring in the preceding 50 years. The current outbreak is also of longer duration due to a northward expansion of the range usually subjected to severe defoliation by this insect. Time-series analysis indicates that balsam fir sawfly dynamics have a strong second-order component, providing testable hypotheses for future studies investigating the factors responsible for population fluctuations.