Past and future climate change over the Himalaya–Tibetan Highland: inferences from APHRODITE and NEX-GDDP data

Abstract

The Himalaya–Tibetan Highland (HTH) is highly vulnerable to climate change for multiple reasons. In this work, we present past and future changes in HTH climate, using temperature and precipitation from APHRODITE, CMIP5 and NEX-GDDP. To assess observed climate change, we analysed APHRODITE and found significant warming (up to 3 °C) during all seasons but no significant change in precipitation. We validated CMIP5 and NEX-GDDP against APHRODITE and found the latter more accurate. Future climate projections under RCP8.5 using NEX-GDDP suggest widespread warming (~5–8 °C) and increase in monsoon and post-monsoon precipitation (up to ~50%) over HTH by the end of the twenty-first century.