Past and future changes to acidified eastern Canadian lakes: A geochemical modeling approach

Abstract

As SO 2 emissions are being reduced in North America, it has become important to know how rapidly the surface water chemistry of aquatic systems will recover. The authors applied the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC) to 410 acid-sensitive lakes located in a 3000 km east–west gradient in eastern Canada. The goal was to estimate the water chemistry from pre-acidification times, under worst case conditions (mid 1970s) and what it should be in the year 2030 after proposed acid emission reduction levels agreed-to or planned by Canada and the United States are in place. In eastern Canada, large decreases in pH and ANC are shown between pre-acidification and 1975, the year of greatest historical deposition. Current-day conditions are much improved from 1975. Under the most likely future acid deposition reduction scenarios, an improvement of pH and ANC is shown in all the regions from current-day levels, but not to pre-acidification levels. Dissolved Ca levels were considerably higher at the height of acidification than under pristine conditions, but will return to pre-acidification levels at most of the sites by the year 2030. The results also show that under proposed control programs, a large number of sites in eastern Canada will not return to ANC values >40 μeq L −1, thought to be suitable for healthy aquatic communities.