Passenger transport decarbonization in emerging economies: policy lessons from modelling long-term deep decarbonization pathways

Abstract

ABSTRACT Reaching the goal of the Paris Agreement will not be possible without a deep decarbonization of the passenger transport sector. In emerging economies experiencing rapid economic growth and social transformations, and large-scale development of urban areas and associated infrastructure, opportunities and challenges exist when considering a broader set of mitigation options. In this paper, we apply the Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP) approach to develop and report scenarios on the passenger transport sector in Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa. This approach supports an increase in the sectoral ambition of covering all drivers of change in transport mobility and facilitating collective comparison and policy discussions on the barriers and enablers of transitions. The scenario analysis illustrates that all four countries can achieve reductions in emissions per passenger kilometres of 59% and up to 92% by 2050 while meeting growing mobility needs. Lastly, the analysis identifies short-term policy needed to address barriers and promote enablers. Key policy insights The scenarios produced in this paper provide targets and guidance, up to 2050, on required ambition in this sector over coming decades. While current national policies are often limited to introducing low-carbon vehicles and fuels, these pathways suggest the important role of a wide spectrum of mitigation options, including systemic measures related to demand-side options. These scenarios suggest that targeted land-use, social, and urban policies could reduce distances between activities, the costs of mobility and time, thereby improving quality of life and supporting the shift to non-motorized and public transport. They highlight a lack of policies to improve the quality of public transport in terms of time and comfort, not only in terms of cost, to avoid a car dependency model with its externalities. Long-term pathways can help support the development of policy-relevant dialogues about barriers and enablers for the transition, thereby supporting the reinforcement of short-term actions and goals.