Achieving net-zero emissions in China’s passenger transport sector through regionally tailored mitigation strategies

Abstract

As a major GHG emissions source with large growth potential, the passenger transport sector plays a crucial role in deep decarbonization in China. Large disparities among provinces in private vehicle ownership, sufficiency of public transport infrastructure, affordability of clean fuel vehicles, etc. highlight the importance of regionally tailored mitigation strategies to fully exploit carbon reduction potentials. We classify 31 provinces in mainland China into three regional clusters based on their passenger transport development level, then establish a provincial level bottom-up model to project energy demand and CO2 emissions of China’s passenger transport sector by 2050. Mitigation effects of improving vehicle energy efficiency, shifting to alternative clean fuels, and promoting public transport are compared, and regionally tailored policy priorities are then proposed. The results show that CO2 emissions of China's passenger transport sector will peak around 2045 at 647 MtCO2 and slightly declined to 642 MtCO2 in 2050 in the Current Policies Scenario. If fully implemented, regionally tailor mitigation strategies that maximize techno-economic carbon reduction potentials could cut CO2 emissions substantially to net-zero in 2050. Mitigation effects of different policy options vary among time periods and regions. Improving vehicle fuel efficiency contributes the most in carbon mitigation over short time scales especially in less developed provinces, where private vehicle ownerships are projected to increase rapidly. Well-established transport infrastructure and an optimally designed public transport system could play a larger role in wealthier provinces.