Abstract
The objective is to identify potential risks in the aircraft development and to quantify the risks in the process, ultimately to find mitigating strategies. Monte-Carlo simulation for quantitative risk assessment and RAND DAPCA IV to calculate the cost are employed. These results are comprehended and collectively assessed with few assumptions. The assumptions are in due consideration to the local conditions, and thus they reflect in the approximations. These assumptions indicate the impact of the industrial and academic environment of the Russian Federation on the developmental cycle of the aircraft. The estimated financial risk for the development of an air medical ambulance for the Russian Federation is 29%, and the cost for unit production of the medical aircraft is nearly 19 million USD. The suggested strategies can reduce the financial risk to 22% and the cost for unit production of the medical aircraft to nearly 13 million USD.
Highlights
The Feasibility study[1] assess the existing medical aircraft designs and their services around the world. It discusses the need for medical aviation in the Russian Federation
The fundamental question is how to quantify the budget for this aircraft development and who is accountable for it? Since this is supposed to be a project of public interest and public development, should the government invest in it? If so, how much? On what basis should budget allocations shall be formed? Or should it be the expected market price of the aircraft for potential buyers? If so, how to optimize production costs and incurred project costs? Or should it be based on the expected reduction in the annual budget for health care, economic and industrial investment? If so, how can this amount be quantified? Despite all this, the expected cost of production tends to increase over the period
The parametric costs of the aircraft development, acquisition, certification and production costs are tabulated in table
Summary
The Feasibility study[1] assess the existing medical aircraft designs and their services around the world. It discusses the need for medical aviation in the Russian Federation. (Fig. 1) illustrates the 3D model of the designed medical aircraft as per identified requirements for the Russian Federation. This design has no base cost or historical data- as the configuration & technical requirements are unique to this selected configuration. The fundamental question is how to quantify the budget for this aircraft development and who is accountable for it? The initial cost is necessary to compare the different strategies and plans for the development of the project[2]
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