Parametric cost estimation models of civil aircraft for the preliminary aircraft design phase

Abstract

AbstractIn the preliminary design phase of aircraft design, estimating the production cost accurately is a challenging task. At this stage, many design parameters that affect the overall cost are still undefined. This paper establishes cost-estimation models for civil, commercial aircraft using a parametric cost analysis (PCA) approach. Aircraft are characterised based on their size, ranging from a wide body to executive jets, into four categories. Key design parameters, such as maximum take-off weight, number of passengers, range, wing area, span, fuselage length, to name a few, are likely to be available in the preliminary design stage and significantly impact the aircraft design. These variables either directly or indirectly affect the overall production cost or performance. The PCA approach includes both correlation and multiple linear regression techniques. The empirical models thus developed were able to predict the aircraft cost with an error of less than ±4% for all aircraft categories considered. Two aircraft in each defined category were not part of the PCA models and were used to verify the models. The proposed models provide the ability to estimate the aircraft cost quickly in the early stages of the preliminary design phase and provide the possibility of performing parametric studies involving the key variables to determine the cost sensitivity to the main design parameters.