Parameter estimation of a susceptible–infected–recovered–dead computer worm model

Abstract

Computer worms are serious threats to Internet security and have caused billions of dollars of economic losses during the past decades. In this study, we implemented a susceptible–infected–recovered–dead (SIRD) model of computer worms and analyzed the characteristics and mechanisms of worm transmission. We applied the ordinary differential equation model to simulate the transmission process of computer worms and estimated the unknown parameters of the SIRD model through the methods of least squares, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and ensemble Kalman filtering (ENKF). The results reveal that the proposed SIRD model is more accurate than the susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered–susceptible model with respect to parameter estimation.