Paradox of Neoliberalism: Arab Spring's Implications on North Korea

Abstract

IntroductionThe Arab Spring suggests a transition to a new social order, a new phase of modern capitalism. The Arab states sit at a critical moment in which old institutions are frail, and what they do over the next few years will lay the groundwork for the next generation's institutionalized of capitalism.1 It is clear that Arab regimes were deeply unpopular and faced serious demographic, economic, and political problems.The young Egyptian university graduate who burned himself to death yearning for democratization triggered democratic uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia. The democratic wind has been blown by the Arab youth who attempted to topple dictators. The democratic movement in Tunisia has bestowed a momentum to the Egyptian democratic uprising. The winds have swept through to Iran, Libya, and Bahrain in the wake of the Tunisian democratic movement. In spite of the brutal crackdown by the authoritarian regimes, the independent democratic movement of the Arab states has gained support from democratic society. People all over the Arab world feel a sense of pride in shaking off decades of cowed passivity under dictatorships that ruled with no deference to popular wishes.2 The kind of collective actions most likely to change the existing social structure are likely to be triggered by members of disadvantaged groups.3 The state's failure to meet the needs of the people and to represent their will may cause class struggle where rival class forces fight to control the vital political organs that wield immense power.4 North Korea as a failed state has considerable potential to be overthrown by mass collective action. Robert I. Rotberg has classified political goods in five categories-safety and security, rule of law and transparency, participation and human rights, sustainable economic opportunity, and human development. Failed states are those states that fall below a threshold of political goods and fail to satisfy the safety and security minimums.5 Given the scarcity of food supplies in North Korea, given its lack of human capital and other human capacities, and given the long poverty of internal discourse within the state, the removal of state security will plunge the otherwise failed state straight into true failure and, likely collapse.6 A nation-state fails when citizens finally perceive that its rulers are running the state as a criminal enterprise to their own advantage and the state no longer cares about most of its inhabitants.Against this backdrop, the feasibility of a democratic movement in North Korea is on the rise. Conditions for a democratic uprising in North Korea are growing gradually. There are many cautious predictions that a democratic movement can happen in North Korea eventually. The democratic movement in North Korea might be somewhat different from the Arab democratic movement.This article briefly reviews the feasibility of the democratization of North Korea. Drawing on this understanding, the article focuses on the implications of the Arab democratic uprising for North Korea. To better appreciate the context of the implications, the article analyzes the characteristics of the Arab democratic uprising, reviews the current situation of the democratic movement in North Korea, and examines the ripple effect of the Arab Spring on the North Korean elite. Emphasizing the negative impact of the Arab Spring on the North Korean regime succession, this article concludes that North Korea's democratization can become possible by empowering the grassroots population in order to make the North Korean regime negotiate with them.The Feasibility of the Democratization of North KoreaThe Arab democratic uprising presents a frightening prospect to the North Korean regime. The collapsed Mubarak regime was a so-called brother state of North Korea. North Korea introduced the Egyptian mobile company Orascom for its telecommunications. Now, approximately more than one million North Koreans have mobile phones run on Orascom's 3G platform. …