Abstract

Coffee is one of the most traded crops worldwide. In the state of Veracruz, Mexico, coffee has been a strategic crop due to its economic, social, environmental, and cultural characteristics that differentiate it from other crops, contributing to the economy of almost 86,000 producers. Several studies have shown that climate is the main cause of the decrease in coffee production and yield. Due to the multi-faceted importance of coffee for the state, the relationship of coffee production and yield with the variables of precipitation (mm) and temperature (°C) from 2003 to 2022 was analyzed through the implementation of a mathematical model that was able to identify that both the total volume of coffee production is decreasing on average at a rate of 7614.9 Mg year−1 as well as the yield, with a significant decrease of 0.106 Mg year−1. It was also found that the optimum temperature value is 18.7 °C, and the optimal precipitation is 1700 mm for the development of coffee. This model also shows that yield is more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation in the study area. Through the application of surveys to 360 producers in 16 coffee-growing municipalities, seven stressors were identified that together hinder the continuity of the coffee industry in the state. These stressors are (1) economic, (2) climatic, (3) land use, (4) technical, (5) social, (6) political, and (7) other. Finally, some strategies are herein proposed to improve coffee production towards greater sustainability, such as agricultural restructuring at the national, regional, and local levels as well as programs and policies to support producers for the continuity of the crop in the region.

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