北美自由貿易協定對美國的個人所得以及就業之影響─追蹤資料(Panel Data)分析

Abstract

It has been 15 years since North American Free Trade Agreement took effect in January 1994. When President Clinton gave remarks at signing of NAFTA side agreements, he promised that NAFTA will create 200,000 jobs within the U.S. in the first two years of its effect, as well as generating another 1 million jobs three years later. Moreover, the research released by United States International Trade Commission in 1992 indicates that NAFTA will help both the U.S. real Gross Domestic Product and employment rate rise 5 percent per year and 0.1 to 2.5 percent. However, 15 years has passed, but the only question still exists. “How is the benefit of NAFTA to the U.S.?” According to the huge growth of trade and Foreign Direct Investment among the three nations, NAFTA seems like a success. Nevertheless, instead of looking at trade and FDI, this research aims to figure out NAFTA’s effect to the U.S. by applying regression analysis to analyze unemployment rate, personal income, and Gross State Product. These data are organized into a panel data and analyzed by Ordinary Least Square and Random Effect Model. The fundamental theories that back this thesis up can be divided into two categories, the classical theory of international trade and gravity model. The classical theory of international trade including division of labor, the theory of absolute advantage, the theory of comparative advantage, and theory of factor endowment explain that how do countries become better of after they trade with each other, as well as how do NAFTA integrate successfully in such a great economic disparity. Furthermore, in the sense of gravity model, the geographical distance and the difference of economic masses of two different countries can really influence the trade between them. To sum up, the main purposes of this research are, firstly, are the benefits of NAFTA to the fifteen border states much more significant than non-border states? Secondly, did those senators really concerns about the interest of their own states before they cast the vote? Finally, according to the result of the empirical work, border states to Canada has barely benefited from NAFTA. On the contrary, border states to Mexico has fairly performed on their economic growth since NAFTA took effect in 1994. The change of unemployment rate has a very significant drop, and both personal income and GSP have a rather small but positive growth. Beside, the result based on the states of vote for and vote against NAFTA does certainly provide very strong evidence that most of the senators did concern about their state interest before they cast the vote.