Pandemic Equation and COVID-19 Evolution

Abstract

The Pandemic Equation describes multiple pandemic waves and has been applied to describe the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the generalized approaches of solid-state physics, we derive the Pandemic Equation, which accounts for the effects of pandemic mitigation measures and multiple pandemic waves. The Pandemic Equation uses slow and fast time scales for “curve flattening” and describing vaccination and mitigation measures and the Scaled Fermi–Dirac distribution functions for describing transitions between pandemic waves. The Pandemic Equation parameters extracted from the pandemic curves can be used for comparing different scenarios of the pandemic evolution and for extrapolating the pandemic evolution curves for the periods of time on the order of the instantaneous Pandemic Equation characteristic time constant. The parameter extraction for multiple locations could also allow for uncertainty quantification for such pandemic evolution predictions.