Pandemic buying: Testing a psychological model of over-purchasing and panic buying using data from the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Richard P Bentall,Philip Hyland,Thomas V A Stocks,Anton P Martinez,Orla Mcbride,Alex Lloyd,Jamie Murphy,Todd K Hartman,Sarah Butter,Ryan Mckay,Liat Levita,Mark Shevlin,Thanos Karatzias,Liam Mason,Frédérique Vallières,Jilly Gibson-Miller,Kate Bennett

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0246339

Abstract

The over-purchasing and hoarding of necessities is a common response to crises, especially in developed economies where there is normally an expectation of plentiful supply. This behaviour was observed internationally during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. In the absence of actual scarcity, this behaviour can be described as 'panic buying' and can lead to temporary shortages. However, there have been few psychological studies of this phenomenon. Here we propose a psychological model of over-purchasing informed by animal foraging theory and make predictions about variables that predict over-purchasing by either exacerbating or mitigating the anticipation of future scarcity. These variables include additional scarcity cues (e.g. loss of income), distress (e.g. depression), psychological factors that draw attention to these cues (e.g. neuroticism) or to reassuring messages (eg. analytical reasoning) or which facilitate over-purchasing (e.g. income). We tested our model in parallel nationally representative internet surveys of the adult general population conducted in the United Kingdom (UK: N = 2025) and the Republic of Ireland (RoI: N = 1041) 52 and 31 days after the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 were detected in the UK and RoI, respectively. About three quarters of participants reported minimal over-purchasing. There was more over-purchasing in RoI vs UK and in urban vs rural areas. When over-purchasing occurred, in both countries it was observed across a wide range of product categories and was accounted for by a single latent factor. It was positively predicted by household income, the presence of children at home, psychological distress (depression, death anxiety), threat sensitivity (right wing authoritarianism) and mistrust of others (paranoia). Analytic reasoning ability had an inhibitory effect. Predictor variables accounted for 36% and 34% of the variance in over-purchasing in the UK and RoI respectively. With some caveats, the data supported our model and points to strategies to mitigate over-purchasing in future crises.

Highlights

During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic news outlets around the world reported what was widely described as “panic buying” of a wide range of household commodities, but especially toilet rolls [1], which led to temporary shortages in Australia, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Spain, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States [2]
We have proposed a psychological model of over-purchasing and panic buying, which was tested using large, nationally representative datasets from the UK and Republic of Ireland (RoI) collected in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic
The predictor variables included in our models were selected in light of the theoretical account of over-purchasing that we outlined in our introduction

Summary

Introduction

During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic news outlets around the world reported what was widely described as “panic buying” of a wide range of household commodities, but especially toilet rolls [1], which led to temporary shortages in Australia, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Spain, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States [2]. Rarely recorded before the beginning of the twentieth century, excessive purchasing and hoarding of essentials, sometimes leading to scarcity of basic goods, has since been observed during many crises. This has especially been the case in populations living in comfortable circumstances in which there is ordinarily an expectation of unbroken access to essential commodities. When Spanish flu arrived in Britain immediately after the First World War, the rush to purchase quinine and other medications led to the threat of shortages [7], and during the 2003 SARS pandemic, over-purchasing in China and Hong Kong led to actual— albeit temporary—shortages of salt, rice, vinegar, vegetable oil, masks, and medicines [8]

Methods

Results

Conclusion