Pan-European meteorological and snow indicators of climate change impact on ski tourism

Samuel Morin,Raphaëlle Samacoïts,Hugues François,Carlo M Carmagnola,Bruno Abegg,O Cenk Demiroglu,Marc Pons,Jean-Michel Soubeyroux,Matthieu Lafaysse,Sam Franklin,Guy Griffiths,Debbie Kite,Anna Amacher Hoppler,Emmanuelle George,Carlo Buontempo,Samuel Almond,Ghislain Dubois,Adeline Cauchy

doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100215

Abstract

Ski tourism plays a major socio-economic role in the snowy and mountainous areas of Europe such as the Alps, the Pyrenees, Nordic Europe, Eastern Europe, Anatolia, etc. Past and future climate change has an impact on the operating conditions of ski resorts, due to their reliance on natural snowfall and favorable conditions for snowmaking. However, there is currently a lack of assessment of past and future operating conditions of ski resorts at the pan-European scale in the context of climate change. The presented work aims at filling this gap, as part of the ”European Tourism” Sectoral Information System (SIS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). The Mountain Tourism Meteorological and Snow Indicators (MTMSI) were co-designed with representatives of the ski tourism industry, including consulting companies. They were derived from statistically adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate projections (multiple GCM/RCM pairs for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using the UERRA 5.5 km resolution surface reanalysis as a reference, used as input to the snow cover model Crocus, with and without accounting for snow management (grooming, snowmaking). Results are generated for 100 m elevation bands for NUTS-3 geographical areas spanning all areas relevant to ski tourism in Europe. This article introduces the underpinning elements for the generation of this product, and illustrates results at the pan-European scale as well as for smaller scale case studies. A dedicated visualization app allows for easy navigation into the multiple dimensions of this dataset, thereby fulfilling the needs of a broad range of users.

Highlights

Like most human activities, tourism depends on meteorological conditions, and is impacted by climate change
Most pan-European (Beniston et al, 2018) or regional (e.g. Gobiet et al, 2014) climate change studies address past and future change of meteorological conditions and natural snow con ditions. Such information provides context for ski resorts operating conditions, and have been used to infer future ski tourism projections in many European countries (Damm et al, 2017; Tranos and Davoudi, 2014). Their relevance for ski tourism stakeholders is limited, in particular because such studies do not account for snow management, it plays a central role for the operations of ski resorts (Steiger et al, 2019; Hock et al, in press; Hanzer et al, 2020)
The Mountain Tourism Meteorological and Snow Indicators (MTMSI) data were developed as part of the Sectoral Information System element of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

Summary

Introduction

Tourism depends on meteorological conditions, and is impacted by climate change. Gobiet et al, 2014) climate change studies address past and future change of meteorological conditions and natural snow con ditions Such information provides context for ski resorts operating conditions, and have been used to infer future ski tourism projections in many European countries (Damm et al, 2017; Tranos and Davoudi, 2014). Still, their relevance for ski tourism stakeholders is limited, in particular because such studies do not account for snow management, it plays a central role for the operations of ski resorts (Steiger et al, 2019; Hock et al, in press; Hanzer et al, 2020). This contribution introduces the scientific background and approach for generating the C3S SIS European Tourism ”Mountain component” products, and delivers the main results relevant to this operational service, opened to users since 2020

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion