Pakistan's Populist Foreign Policy

Abstract

If US policymakers did not fully understand before 2011 how important the so-called ‘Arab street’ is in the politics of the Middle East and North Africa, they surely do by now. Whether this principle extends to other parts of the Muslim world is not yet clear, but in Pakistan, one of America's most important Muslim-majority allies, the effect of public opinion on the country's politics, including its foreign policy, may be critical. Despite an apparent alienation between much of Pakistan's elite and the public at large, many observers are prepared to accept that public opinion drives the behaviour of Pakistan's civilian politicians. But public opinion is also a key driver of choices made by the Pakistan military. Western observers and policymakers tend to assume that senior military officers run the show and have been slow to realise that Pakistani behaviour, even among the upper echelons of the army, is powerfully shaped from below.