Abstract
The crude oil markets have seen unpredictability over petroleum markets' good and bad times worldwide in the past few years. Various facets of the natural energy industry discuss in this research paper. The effect of the Indian ecosystem in determining oil demand and supply is vital to understand price fluctuations. Researchers in this research paper concentrates on the ARIMA model and other regression models used in the post-1991 LPG reforms to determine crude petroleum values and their primary effect on the Indian ecosystem (GDP) through time-series data from 1991 to 2019. The ARIMA model is further evidence of the validation of datasets and the potential trend in the show of global oil rates. The uncouth oil historical values prophesy the potential movement from crude oil prices, and the recommended model-based fall-outs are compelling and honest. Before applying the normality of data and unit-roots, the ARIMA model thoroughly checks at the level. If stationary is not detected, then unit-roots are suspended. The first step is to keep residuals static at the required level of significance to provide efficient forecasting using the ARIMA model used for this analysis.
Highlights
India is known as the world's third-leading oil-importing country and the world's seventhlargest economy as far as the present scenario is concerned
India's crude oil import bill for 2018-2019 witnessed a rising trend sharply in March 2018 as India relies for 80% of its consumption needs on its crude oil Imports
The CAD (Current Account Deficit) and fiscal and economic deficits are getting more prominent in trade imbalance in the economy
Summary
India is known as the world's third-leading oil-importing country and the world's seventhlargest economy as far as the present scenario is concerned. K. (2021) Overview of the ARIMA Model Average Crude Oil Price Forecast and its Implications on the Indian Economy Post-Liberalization. 2021/ ARIMA Model Average Crude Oil Price Forecast and its Implications on the Indian Economy Post-Liberalization. Federation) assistance from oil price surprises, analogous to (Huseynov and Ahmadov, 2013), endorses that an upsurge in oil prices is a constructive surprise that lifts the national economy It leads to more significant inflation after intense literature review reveals only a few studies in this area of crude oil price estimation and Its Effect on the Post-Liberalization Indian Economy -An Overview” for investigation. Compared to previous ups and downs, i.e., a forecast period of 12 years after 2019, it is incredibly evident that fuel products' prices suggest a steady growth pattern from 2019 to 2030
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