Overtopping failure analysis of coastal flood defences affected by climate change

Abstract

Sea defence structures are expected to protect coasts for a long period, hence requiring reliable performance assessment strategies, in order to ensure their integrity and functionality. It has been demonstrated that rising sea level together with changing wave height can lead to increase risks of the failure to coastal defence structures. This paper presents a method for assessing the risk of wave overtopping failure, analysing the joint probability of sea water level and significant wave height under future hydraulic conditions due to climate change. Monte Carlo simulations are utilised to analyse the time-dependant overtopping failure probability of a seawall in the UK subjected to sea level rise. The numerical results for the flood defence example show that the seawall subjected to the sea level rise with high emission scenario could face to a significant increase of the frequency and the rate of overtopping discharge in comparison with the present date conditions without consideration of seawall crest settlement.