Abstract
Coastal areas of State of New Jersey in the Northeastern United States are exposed to extreme wind waves generated by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean. Past studies suggest that the frequency and intensity of major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin would increase under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Furthermore, sea level observations have revealed that the local mean sea level along the coast of New Jersey is rising at a rate higher than that of the global sea level rise. The objective of this study is to quantify the combined influence of sea level rise (SLR) and hurricane climatology change on wave heights induced by major hurricanes off the coast of New Jersey. To this end, a coupled hydrodynamic-wave model is utilized to simulate wind waves for synthetic hurricanes generated for the climate conditions in the historical period of 1980–2000 and future period of 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. The synthetic storms are generated by a hurricane model for the climate conditions obtained from four different global climate models. The projections of future wave heights show statistically significant increases in the wave heights induced by major hurricanes. Under the combined effects of hurricane climatology change and a SLR of 1.19 m, the increase in the extreme wave heights 15% in back-bays and shallow waters of the nearshore zone and up to 10% in deeper coastal waters. It is found that SLR alone would result in a significant increase in the hurricane-induced wave heights in the present-day surf zone.
Highlights
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the costliest and most destructive natural disasters worldwide (Smith and Katz, 2013)
The objective of this study was to quantify the influence of sea level rise (SLR) and TC climatology change on future wind waves generated by major hurricanes off the coast of New Jersey
The projected future wave heights showed that hurricane climatology change would alone increase the wave heights up to 15% in the open coastal waters as well as back-bays of the study area
Summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the costliest and most destructive natural disasters worldwide (Smith and Katz, 2013). In addition to strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high storm surges, TCs generate destructive surface waves, which pose a significant threat to infrastructure, navigation, and communities. The failure of a highway bridge on the Gulf of Mexico Coast during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was caused by wave attack that accompanied by high water levels (Chen et al, 2009). In the absence of large storm surges, waves generated by offshore TCs still can cause dangerous surf conditions, rip currents, and severe coastal erosion as was observed along the U.S East Coast during Hurricane Felix in 1995 (Lawrence et al, 1997). Future TC-induced wave hazards could be influenced by climate change, as a result of sea level rise (SLR) and TC climatology change. SLR will increase the mean sea level, which will result in deeper
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