Overall survival prediction and risk stratification in patients with neuroblastoma through machine learning in the large multi-institutional PRIMAGE cohort.

Abstract

10054 Background: Neuroblastoma (NB) is the most prevalent solid cancer in childhood in which imaging plays a pivotal role at every step of the patient's journey. This investigation aimed to develop a machine learning model using clinical, molecular (MycN amplification), and magnetic resonance (MR) radiomics features at diagnosis to predict patient’s overall survival (OS) and improve their risk stratification. Methods: A database comprising clinical, molecular, and International Neuroblastoma Risk Group (INRG) staging on 513 patients with accessible MR imaging (discovery cohort) was employed for model training, validation, and testing. An additional 22 patients from non-discovery cohort hospitals served as an external validation group. Tumor segmentations of NB were manually and semi-automatically performed on corresponding T2-weighted MR images by an experienced radiologist. In total, 107 radiomics features were extracted and harmonized across MR scan manufacturers and magnetic field strengths using the nested ComBat methodology to correct both batch effects. These radiomics features, combined with clinical and molecular data, were utilized as input for the models. A nested cross-validation approach was employed for model development to determine the optimal preprocessing, machine learning algorithm, and model configuration. Results: The discovery cohort yielded a C-index of 0.788 ± 0.049 in the test partitions, with a random survival forest (RSF) exhibiting the best performance. In the validation cohort, a C-index of 0.934 was achieved. Interpretability analysis identified lesion heterogeneity, size, and molecular variables as crucial factors in OS prediction. The model demonstrated superior predictive performance and patient stratification compared to conventional staging systems in both cohorts. Conclusions: The RSF predictive model exhibited high performance, emphasizing the significant contribution of radiomics features and alignment with established clinical and molecular variables. The model stratified NB patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories and suggests that radiomics features potentially could improve current risk stratification systems. Additional external validation is warranted as this may present new evidence for enhancing patient care and clinical decision-making for NB patients.