Ovarian cancer risk among older patients with stable adnexal masses

Abstract

Few studies have evaluated the risk of cancer among older patients with stable adnexal masses in community-based settings to determine the duration of observation time needed. This study aimed to assess the ovarian cancer risk among older patients with stable adnexal masses on ultrasound. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients in a large community-based health system aged ≥50 years with an adnexal mass <10 cm on ultrasound between 2016 and 2020 who had at least 1 follow-up ultrasound performed ≥6 weeks after initial ultrasound. Masses were considered stable on follow-up examination if they did not exhibit an increase of >1 cm in the greatest dimension or a change in standardized reported ultrasound characteristics. Ovarian cancer risk was determined at increasing time intervals of stability after initial ultrasound. Among 4061 patients with stable masses, the average age was 61 years (range, 50-99), with an initial mass size of 3.8 cm (range, 0.2-9.9). With a median follow-up of 3.7 years, 11 cancers were detected, with an absolute risk of 0.27%. Ovarian cancer risk declined with longer duration of stability, from 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.30-1.17) per 1000 person-years at 6 to 12 weeks, 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.19-1.07) at 13 to 24 weeks, 0.44 (95% confidence interval, 0.01-0.87) at 25 to 52 weeks, and 0.00 (95% confidence interval, 0.00-0.00) at >52 weeks. Expressed as number needed to reimage, ongoing ultrasound imaging would be needed for 369 patients whose masses show stability at 6 to 12 weeks, 410 patients at 13 to 24 weeks, 583 patients at 25 to 52 weeks, and >1142 patients with stable masses at 53 to 104 weeks to detect 1 case of ovarian cancer. In a diverse community-based setting, among patients aged ≥50 years with an adnexal mass that was stable for at least 6 weeks after initial ultrasound, the risk of ovarian cancer was very low at 0.27%. Longer demonstrated duration of stability was associated with progressively lower risk, with no cancer cases observed after 52 weeks of stability. These findings suggest that the benefit of ultrasound monitoring of stable masses beyond 12 months is minimal and may be outweighed by potential risks of repeated imaging.