Outside the Battlefield: In-Group Political Dynamics of Civil War Negotiations and Settlements

Abstract

What influences warring parties’ ability to reach a negotiated settlement to end civil war? In this chapter, I answer this question by examining the environment government and rebel group leadership internally encounter while seeking to unite on a consensual decision to negotiate. I disaggregate in-group dynamics of governments and rebels into their respective political elements that either grant autonomy or create constraints for resolution, namely, their constituencies and elites. Introducing original negotiations data for internal conflict-dyad-years between 1980 and 2005, this paper reveals that successful settlements cannot be thought autonomously from the wider pool of all (successful and failed) negotiations that were initiated. Moreover, autonomy from constituent and elite obstruction seem to be two important factors for conflicts to be settled successfully.